Another bit of help with the roadsigns...

Excuse the rant, but the pressure builds...

How many folks here have enough long term memory left to remember a couple years ago when the newly elected Dimocrats were hauling the banking execs onto the carpet and grilling them as to why they weren’t lending more money to poor folks to allow them the pride of home ownership?

There was a reason banks hadn’t lent money to them. They weren’t in the habit of making enough regular payments so as to lift their credit rating. That’s why they were called RENTERS!

The banking industry, in response to pressure from the politicians now in control, came up with Creative Financing, where aformentioned poor folks could get a mortgage without a down payment. All this did was shift them from paying rent on a home they didn’t own to paying rent on a home they did own.

Then they cut the oversight of Fannie and Freddy…

Oh, then we have a crisis that’s “just too good to waste”…

…and we wind up with a Dimocrat in the White House along with control of the Legislature and now we’re going to tax ourselves into prosperity… AGAIN!

I would have no problem with targeting the Bailout/Stimulus to just the districts that voted for it.

With the addendum that the ones that voted against it also don’t have to pay for it.

Watch people vote with their feet then.

Long time, no key...

Wow, it's been THAT long since I posted something here? Daannng...

Well, it has been an event filled time, hasn't it? History has been made and unmade. Scary times, these Historic Days, hunh?

As to investments, I believe we're looking back at the bottoms of the market, for next few months anyway. We've seen investors become aware of the dangers of inflation to come, what with the trillions and trillions of greenbacks being printed. We're seeing the Gulf States actually have to keep their old 747 instead of upgrading this year, due to the fall in oil. And worst of all, we're seeing our grand and great-grandkids' taxes being spent this coming 2 years.

I say 2 years becayse that's when the next elections are and we'll have a chance to turn the tide in Washington. Hopefully, we'll be able to get out of this depression without a war like the last one.

What I'm buying this week? UYG, OMEX, SOLM (nice pop today on this one) and I'll hold on to them till I've made a few bucks. Nothing long term, as with the bricks, no, CONCRETE BLOCKS I've taken upside the head for being in this market the last few months, I have to go for the short term gains to raise capital (and grocery money).

Like the sign says, GOOD LUCK!

I LIKE LimeLight

I LIKE LimeLight Networks. I started picking up more the other day at $9.68 and kept buying as it dropped, the last block being bought at $9.35. Then yesterday, I started selling it as it rose, the last being in the last 30 minutes before the close at $11.50. Nice 9% gain for a hold over the weekend, as it averaged out. It's looking like it's retracing a bit today with some profit taking. I'm looking for it to fall to around the $11 level (around it's 50 day moving average line), and I'll look to get some more there.

Gold is starting to move up again, after failing to drop below the $727 support level in it's retracement last week. What with all the talk of Food Inflation ($3.50 loaves of bread, $4/gallon milk), the Ryder admission that they're hurt by the credit crunch, and all the pollsters saying how bad things are (I think that's mostly politically driven), we'll be seeing a bounce up to new 26 year highs and possibly all time highs before the year is out. Bullion River Gold Corp. (BLRV) just announced yesterday that their reported resource estimate "has been exceeded due to newly gathered information during the mining operation. " That essentially means that there's more gold there than they thought. They're also cutting costs by paring some excess workforce. I'm looking for them to be turning around fairly soon, so get in while you can. Last sale as I type this is $.285 per share.

I'm baaaack...

Well, it's been a few days since I last posted, but I plead extenuating circumstances:

1. - My laptop that I usually work from in front of the tv (which is starting to show some "burn-in" from the crawl at the bottom of the screen on CNBC) decided it was sufficiently past the warranty date that it could expire safely. It was one of the handful of times I have seen the BSD (some enlightened types call it the Blue Screen of Sorrow) on Windows-XP. I knew it couldn't be good... I'm back to the desktop machine I made back in 2002, having to run from the family room to the office to check on a stock mentioned in the news.

2. - Halo 3 came out on 25-Sept. and my beautiful wife didn't get me one until the 29th. I spent four whole days sulking and playing Halo 2 from beginning to end (just to remember the "story thus far...") and thinking of all the 10 year-olds that were going to be all practiced and kicking my butt when I made it online. We finally picked one up Saturday at Costco and I was through the campaign mode (albeit on "easy") by Sunday at midnight. I'm about a third of the way through it on "heroic" now...

Thus my lack of enthusiasm for posting in the last few days, although I've still made a few bucks watching the charts. Taking a look at some short term charts (5 days), I found some MACD crossovers that looked good for the short term. I picked up some Lumera (LMRA) at $4.37 and let it go a day later at a $4.28 when it didn't look like it was going to go anywhere. At the same time I picked up the Lumera, I also found some Limelight Networks (LLNW) at $8.67 that had the same sort of crossover. I sold it today at $9.94 as the RSI was getting into the overbought range. Nice 15% profit for a couple days of holding the stock. I think I'll be keeping an eye on LLNW, as they're starting to look like a longer term opportunity.

I'm still thinking gold has room to run, but we'll be seeing a pullback in the short term as profit taking drives the market lower. Keep an eye on BLRV, as it's still pretty cheap. But watch out when gold turns around and starts up again.

Nice week, get ready for more...

Looking at today's prices, I'm glad I moved out of EPM (as it was approaching the overbought point around the RSI: 75) and picked up some AcuSphere (ACUS). ACUS has been beaten down lately, but they're getting their ducks in a row and should be coming back. The commodities have been pretty hot all this week, so one might expect profit taking next week. Probably a buying opportunity, for those that haven't made it into the market yet. Remember, allowing for for inflation adjustment, we should be seeing $2,000 gold these days. Picked up some more BLRV as well, as they're trimming costs while increasing production.

WooHoo! Half Percent Rate Cut!

Well, a lot of folks are breathing a sigh of relief tonight after the Fed's cut 50 basis points on both the Fed Funds rate as well as the Discount rate. This is going to be bearish on the Dollar, as folks will want to put their euros and yen or whatever in something that pays a better interest rate. Additionally, it will spike inflation, as costs for things outside of the US will now cost more, because of the lower Dollar. This will cause the price of gold to probably test and surpass the highs from back in the 80's.

It's less than 6 hours old and already Asian trading is sending it to a more than 25 year high, with energy to send it to all time highs and beyond. Gold hit the $870's where it topped out back in January 1980, and gold reached the $730's in May of last year. Some are calling for over $1000 an ounce in the long term, though others are calling for a correction to the upper $600 range.

I can't help but remember all the treasuries the Chinese were buying with all those dollars we give for their products. When they see the Dollars they're holding start to be worth less and less, I think they will start dumping their dollar denominated anythings and buying gold. Dumping Dollars will, in turn, make gold worth even more. I'm set in my gold stock (BLRV), just waiting for things to hit some peaks.

Short term buys, long term buys.

Got into some EPM again yesterday after selling off the DEEP. I know DEEP still has some upside to go, but the EPM was starting another spike and I wanted to get some while it was hot. It broke out above it's fifty day moving average, so it's a place to make a few bucks for the moment, and the next few days.

Looking at the weather http://www.kcra.com/wxmap/5426744/detail.html in the Atlantic, I see there's another storm forming east of the Windwards. That'll give natural gas another push to the upside, at least through the weekend.

It seems like the whole world is waiting for the Fed's meeting next week. Many things are going to swing depending on the if, when, and how much of the cut. We have the dollar at the lowest value it's held for the past few years, gold is approaching it's all time highs if it breaks thru it's last high point from a year and a half ago, and oil is just a day or two past it's all time high. I'm banking that they're going to drop rates by a quarter to half a point. If it's just a quarter point, we're probably going to see further cuts. If it is a half a point, we might not see any further cuts till next year.

I said it first!

I just heard Sue Herera on CNBC just say the exact same thing I did in my post on 4-Sept. She said the Fed would cut rates and the Market would drop, whether the cut was .25% or .5%, kind of like a catch-22... Almost my exact words. Are you reading my blog, Sue?

I thought I was wrong once...

...But I found out later I was right. - Seldom Seen Slim, The Monkey Wrench Gang by Edward Abby - Great book, IMHO.



I love patting myself on the back. It does tend to cramp up my arm after a while, so it's a good thing not to do too much. I hope you read my first post a few weeks ago and picked up some Gateway (GTW) when it was hovering around the $1.20 mark. It had a MACD crossover about the 16th and on the 17th, it touched $1.36. Hold it another week of so and on the 27th, the announcement they were being bought by Acer comes out. The stock hits $1.86 that day. Now if I had just bought some instead of just looking at it...



I did more than watch the shares of Superior Offshore (DEEP) the other day. I did get in to a few hundred shares at just over $11. It was nice watching them hit $12.48 interday, before retreating to $12.25 at the close. I see some more upside potential, possibly to around the $14 level.



Gold has just been on a rocket the past few days. The uncertainty over the liquidity in the credit market along with the housing bubble popping has made a lot of folks nervous. What with the fear of the American Consumer putting away their collective wallets, houses sitting on the market longer and longer, and the retail sales data starting to come in from the back to school season, we might be facing a lot of missed numbers in the retail and durable goods area pretty soon. The credit issues are also affecting the autos, as well as the consumer electronics market. Witness Apple's (APPL) dropping the price on the new Iphone just two months after the debut. Is there a miss in Apple's numbers coming too? Watch this space to see when to buy...

Back to gold though, it's looking hot for the next while. With the Central Banks injecting more money for liquidity, it's like putting the presses on overtime. Add to this the Syrians and Israel stirring things up, and the price of oil begins to rise. Can you say inflation? I knew you could. Just makes Bernake's job all that much harder. Buy (GLD) or mining stocks. I'm in (BLRV).

Bernake & Bush = Wonder Twins?

I saw one of the major papers the other day having a headline likening Bush and Bernake and their sub-prime bailout plans to the Wonder Twins. I sure hope they're not like that, because if I remember correctly, the Wonder Twins always got their butts kicked before the real superheros had to come in and clean up.

At any rate, possibly a lower one by this time next month, the Fed will definately be on the hot seat if they drop things to little or too far. The market has already priced in a cut to 4.5 to 5%. If the cut comes in at a quarter point, the market will frown at that not being enough and tank. If he cuts a half point, yet the banks don't start freeing up some money for folks, then the market will still tank. If he goes and cuts a full point, then things will probably tank anyway because if the Fed thinks things are that bad, then they probably are. Kind of like a catch-22.

It's been a couple of weeks since I posted here. Hey, it's Vacation Season. I sold off the EPM I had picked up at $2.25 for $2.40, just before it started dropping again. I picked up some BLRV at $.32 the same day. Today I watched gold break out on the top side, closing above $682 in New York and BLRV is at $.35. I'm going to hold on and even pick up some more if the chance comes around (read: if I sell something else and need to park the cash).

I see the hurricane season is starting to pick up in the Carib'. Looking back at a stock that IPO'd a couple of months ago, Superior Offshore (DEEP) made me a couple bucks in the week or so after the IPO. Since then it's fallen to nearly half it's value, bottoming last week at $10.10. I saw it had a MACD crossover heading up and also came up from it's RSI of 20. I bought some today just above $11.

Looking at possibilities, I have my eye on Netflix (NFLX), and Playboy (PLA). Netflix is getting into downloadable movies. The coming prevalance of DSL, FTTH, and really cheap storage (terabyte storage for a few hundred dollars), means that we'll be downloading everything from first run movies (probably directly from the studio's website) to live news. Netflix is positioning themselves early in this direction. I also have an eye on Playboy. Today my wife gets this catalog in the mail from this place called The Bunny Shop. Yep, you guessed it. Playboy Mansion tenants modeling revealing sweaters, lingere, and such. Why it they took this long to think about this, I don't know. I do know my wife would look great in some of the fashions (yeah, she's a hottie...), and they're not cheap. They might get a good bounce in the bottom line next reporting season.

What now?

OK, so last week wasn't the best week to go visit the Mom-in-law out in the country where I could barely get a wireless connection pirated from the neighbors. Every time a page would start loading, the connection would drop and I'd have to start over again. Well, it probably kept me from the panic that seemed to be hitting the Street.

I did make a couple of sales, and a few purchases as well. It's hard to resist a stock I've been watching for a while when it hits what I think is a bottom. I saw two last week, Bullion River Gold Corp(BLRV) - down from $.58 to $.37, and Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM) - down from $2.65 to below $1.98, settling at $2.33 for the Friday close.

What with just about everyone's Central Banks injecting funds for "liquidity" and the Fed's cut of the Discount Rate, Ol' Inflation will be rearing it's head here before too long. You see, back in the 80's, the big number that everyone watched was the M1 Money Supply that came out every Friday after the close. When it went up, the Fed got scared of Inflation and raised rates. You see, back then, everyone remembered the Scary 70's, with inflation hitting over 14%, and interest rates just as sky high to try and control it. Sooner or later, people are going to remember those days, along with the price of gold over $800 per ounce. What would that be in today's dollars? Well, take it that a loaf of bread was, what, $.25-.35, and I paid over $3.00 for some whole grain wheat the other day (probably due to corn and grain prices blown up by the Ethanol Folks), then gold prices could be adjusted quite a bit upwards if the fit hit the shan...

The EPM I just picked up on a hunch that it would have a nice bounce in the next day or two. Hey, The Dean Cometh...

More hammered stocks...

Looking at the charts after closing and Cramer, I see more hammered stocks of very good companies: Electronic Data Systems (EDS), Superior Offshore International (Deep), Rite Aid (RAD), Evolution Petroleum (EPM), etc.

EPM seems to be more of a cyclical, though I haven't figured out the cause of the cycle yet. They're in the NatGas business, along with "enhanced recovery" oil technologies. They seem to drop down to around the $2.30 mark or so before popping up to the $3.60 mark or so over the last year or so. Kinda like what those guys over on "channelingstocks.com" always look for. You got it here free, folks...